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July 29, 2018

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

  • EUR/USD. The past seven days, like the previous one and a half months, did not bring any significant events, and the market is in a lazy-holiday mood because of that. The pair's volatility is 130 points, and the maximum deviation from the Pivot Point of the medium-range lateral channel (1.1660) is even less - only 90 points, after which the pair returns to the central zone. So it happened this time as well - at the end of the trading session, it froze at 1.1658;
  • the GBP/USD pair also behaved weakly, gradually consolidating near the horizon of 1.3100. The range of British currency fluctuations was not much higher than that of the euro and amounted to only about 145 points. The pair finished the week at the level of 1.3102;
  • USD/JPY. This pair was painstakingly drawing the head-and-shoulders figure for the whole month of July, although to some, it might be more like a cowboy hat. Last week was devoted to the right field of this hat, which means a sideways trend within the boundaries of 110.58-111.53. As for the end of the week, the pair met it in the middle of the channel at around 111.00; 

As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

  • EUR/USD. The next week will be filled with events, which at another time could initiate quite strong movements in the market. However, at the present moment, surprises should not be expected either from the data on the GDP of the Eurozone, or from the values of the consumer price index, which will be announced on Tuesday July 31.
    If we look at other developments concerning the euro/dollar pair, one can note the decision of the US Federal Reserve on the interest rate and the Fed's subsequent comment on Wednesday, August 1, as well as the publication of data on the US labor market on Friday, August 3. But here, most likely, there will be only a small short-term increase in volatility.
    As for the oscillators, their indications on D 1 were divided into almost equal parts - one third are for the growth of the pair, one third are for its fall and one third are for the sideways trend. But as for the experts, the overwhelming majority of them (70%) still tends to see the pair reduce to the lower boundary of the medium-term side channel 1.1505-1.1850. However, it is possible that the pair will stay within the two-week zone 1.1575-1.1750 for some time, and only then it will go down. It is this scenario that is drawn by the graphical analysis on D1.
    This time only 30% of analysts voted for the growth of the pair to the upper border of the channel 1.1850;
  • The future of the British pound is not encouraging, even despite the possible increase by the Bank of England interest rate from 0.50% to 0.75%, which will be known on Thursday August 2. 65% of experts believe that the GBP/USD pair will continue its decline - first to the level of 1.3000-1.3070, and then to support 1.2955. The ultimate goal is the 2017 summer lows in the zone 1.2800.
    An alternative point of view is represented by 35% of analysts who believe that the pair has reached the local bottom and will now return to the marks around 1.3200-1.3300. In their opinion, its rise during August to a height of 1.3450 is possible. 15% of oscillators side with the bulls as well, giving signals the pair is oversold;
  • USD/JPY. Here, the experts who support the strengthening of the dollar and the growth of the pair, at least, to the zone of 111.75-112.20. are preponderant (60%) The graphical analysis on H4 fully agrees with this.
    The remaining 40% place their hopes to Tuesday, July 31. On this day, the Bank of Japan is likely to leave Interest rate unchanged at -0.1%, but the comments of the leadership of this regulator have a chance to support the yen. But this will happen only if there are at least hints of a change in monetary policy and an increase in the interest rate to positive values. In this case, the support is at levels 110.60, 110.30 and 109.75;


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