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December 15, 2018

First, a review of last week’s events:

  • EUR/USD. If the basic forecast for the past week had assumed a lateral movement in channel 1.1310-1.1415, the meeting of the European Central Bank and the subsequent conference of the ECB President Mario Draghi were called as the basic event. The ECB made a long-promised decision on January 1, 2019 to complete the quantitative easing program, and Draghi demotivated investors with a statement of increased risks. Based on this, the forecasts of the region’s economic growth for 2018-19 were lowered, to which the euro responded with a fall, but still remained within the limits of the stated channel.
    The key support 1.1300 was broken already on Friday, December 14, when the Bundesbank lowered its forecasts for Germany's GDP and inflation. The regulator now expects that the growth of the economy in the outgoing year will not be 2.0%, as previously assumed, but only 1.5%. As for the 2019, the forecast here was lowered from 1.9% to 1.6%. The gloomy business performance indicators finally disappointed the market, and the pair went down sharply, reaching the local bottom at 1.1270. After that, a small rebound followed, returning it to the level of 1.1300, which turned from support to resistance;
  • GBP/USD. Pound is still ruled by Brexit. As expected, the vote in the British Parliament on the terms of a divorce from the EU didn't have a result. It was just canceled. As a result, by Wednesday, December 12, the pair dropped to the level of 1.2474, having lost 285 points compared to the beginning of the week. As for the end of the five-day week, it found itself near the mark of 1.25 85;
  • USD/JPY. Last week, 45% of experts voted for the pair's growth, and 113.20, 113.65 and 114.00 were indicated as resistance levels. The truth, as often happens, was in the middle, and the weekly high was noted at the height of 113.70. The final chord of the week sounded at the level of 113.35;

As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

  • EUR/USD. The color here is red. It is almost an unprecedented case: 100% of the oscillators and 100% of the indicators on H4 and D1 are painted exactly in this color. 70% of experts also vote for the growth of the dollar and the fall of the pair. The reason for this is interest rates.
    The likelihood that the Fed will announce a rate increase from 2.25% to 2.5% on Wednesday December 19 is over 75%. In addition, the market is confidently expecting one or two more increases next year. As for the growth of the euro rates, there is a complete uncertainty here. Draghi promised to keep the rate at zero level until the summer of 2019. But this summer rise is a big question. So, most investors are now looking south, to the zone of the year low, which was recorded on November 12, 1.1215. That it is the main goal for the pair. The nearest support is 1.1265;
    The alternative scenario is supported by 30% of analysts and graphical analysis on D1. In the event the developments are according to their scenario, the pair will once again rise above the strong support/resistance level of 1.1300 and can even reach Pivot Point of the three-week side channel of 1.1360. The following targets are 1.1400 and 1.1440;

  • GBP/USD. The British currency is facing a lot of events next week. On Wednesday, December 19, a block of inflation data will be published. And even if the inflation grows, the market may consider that such an increase is due to the weakening of the pound because of Brexit. The next day, the Bank of England will announce the interest rate decision, which is likely to remain unchanged, which will also play against the pound. Data on the GDP growth rates on Friday is unlikely to seriously affect the overall dynamics of the British currency. And they are negative.
    50% of experts and about 90% of indicators agree with this. According to their forecast, the pair may decline first to the horizon of 1.2475, and then another 75 points lower.
    20% of analysts have taken a neutral position, and the remaining 30% have voted for the pair's growth to the zone of 1.2670-1.2700;
  • USD/JPY. Regarding the future of this pair, the indicators do not give any clear guidelines: their readings are divided almost equally. The same applies to the expert opinions: 45% of them are for the fall of the pair, 50% are for the continuation of growth and 5% just shake their shoulders. Such uncertainty becomes clear if you look at the pair's chart, which is now located approximately in the middle of the six-week side channel 112.30-114.00.
    The meeting of the Bank of Japan is unlikely to affect the quotes of the pair, and the only event that could seriously move it up is the already mentioned decision of the US Federal Reserve on the interest rate. In this case, according to many analysts, the pair can break through the upper boundary of the channel and reach the zone of 114.55-114.75.
    The graphical analysis on D1 has taken a sharply opposite position, which predicts the pair to fall to support 112.20 and then to the level 111.75;

NordFX CY


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