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July 18, 2020

First, a review of last week’s events:

  • EUR/USD. Relations between Beijing and Washington continue to heat up, the onslaught on coronavirus goes with great difficulty. 1.3 million people applied for primary unemployment benefits last week in the United States. For more than 17.3 million it was not the first time that they received them, which is 10 times higher than the pre-crisis norm. But at the same time, the risk appetite of investors does not fade away, the stock markets continue to grow. The S&P500 index has been climbing since March 23 and is already approaching February highs. The Nasdaq 100 has broken all records, jumping over the 10,650 mark.
    Some analysts attribute this to low expectations of a post-crisis economic recovery. Investors had expected to see a complete disaster, but everything turned out to be not so bad, and 80% of the companies that reported showed very optimistic results, fueling the craving for risky assets.
    Amid the growth of the stock market, the US dollar as a safe-haven currency is not so attractive. If in March its USDX index, showing the ratio of the dollar to a basket of six major currencies (EUR, JPY, GBP, CAD, SEK and CHF), was approaching at 103, it has now fallen below 95.
    The dollar weakened against the European currency as well. Since Monday the EUR/USD has gone up steadily. However, it fell slightly short of the 1.1500 height predicted by the Bloomberg probability calculator, and stopped at 1.1450 on Wednesday, July 15. A day later, on July 16, following the ECB meeting, a slight rebound followed, but then the dollar retreated again, and the pair ended the five-day period at 1.1435;
  • GBP/USD. The absence of any significant drivers last week led to the British currency moving into a side trend, gradually consolidating in the 1.2560 zone. The pair failed to rise above the resistance of 1.2670 and fall below 1.2480, and as a result it placed the final chord almost in the middle of this corridor: at 1.2570;
  • USD/JPY. The share of the Japanese currency in the USDX is not so large - only 13.6%, but some analysts consider the behavior of the USD/JPY pair to be a good indicator that determines the risk appetite of the markets. However, it should be noted that during the COVID-19 pandemic, the dollar has sharply strengthened its position as a protective asset, and it has become much more difficult to use this indicator. So last week it gave almost no signals. The pair demonstrated a classic sideways trend of two parabolic waves within 106.65-107.40, completing the trading session in the central part of this channel, at the horizon 107.00 

As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the views of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

  • EUR/USD. The ECB left the interest rate unchanged at 0.0% on July 16. A day earlier, the Bank of Japan remained in the same positions with a negative rate of -0.1%. Of course, when the pandemic comes to an end, inflation figures and which regulators will start raising their interest rates faster will play a decisive role. In the meantime, factors directly related to COVID-19 continue to play a crucial role on market sentiment.
    Recall that a week ago the Bloomberg probability calculator, based on the options market readings, showed that the EUR/USD pair is more likely to rise above 1.1500 than fall below 1.1200. And now this forecast is supported by 80% of experts, pointing to the zone 1.1470-1.1530. Only 20% expect the pair to decline to the area of 1.1200-1.1300.
    75% of oscillators and 95% of trend indicators on H4 and D1 are also painted green. The remaining 15% of the oscillators give signals that the pair is overbought. Graphical analysis on H4 expects the pair to grow up to 1.1500 as well, after which, according to its readings, it should return to the 1.1385 zone.
    There is such a strategy - to trade “against the crowd”, that is, see where most traders are looking, and do the opposite. The current nearly unanimous “green” sentiment “for some reason” makes us remember it...

  • GBP/USD. The vast majority of experts (70%) expect that market interest in protective assets such as the dollar will continue to weaken, and this will help the GBP/USD pair to continue its northward movement, which began on June 30. The main goal is the high of June 10, 1.2810, the resistance is located at levels 1.2670 and 1.2740. Bullish sentiment is supported by 60% of oscillators and trend indicators on D1. As for their readings on the H4 timeframe, there is complete confusion caused by the sideways trend of the past week.
    The remaining 30% of analysts support the pair's fall. Support levels: 1.2480, 1.2350 and 1.2250;
  • USD/JPY. Except for a single release on June 02-05, the pair has been moving in the lateral corridor 106.00-108.10 for 14 weeks, and, according to experts, is not going to leave its limits yet. Moreover, this channel has narrowed even more in the last week, to just 75 points. In such conditions, opinions of experts were divided equally, 50% by 50%, but indicators on D1 give priority to the bears: 85% of oscillators and 100% of trend indicators are painted red.
    They are opposed by 15% of oscillators giving signals about the pair being oversold and graphical analysis on H4, confidently indicating the height of 108.10;


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