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July 10, 2021

First, a review of last week’s events:

  • EUR/USD. As predicted by the majority (65%) of experts, the dollar continued to weaken at the beginning of the week, and the EUR/USD pair went up. Disappointing data from the US labour market, released on July 02, affected the dollar. According to forecasts, the unemployment rate was supposed to fall from 5.8% to 5.7%, however, contrary to expectations, it rose to 5.9%.
    The US business activity indicators released on Tuesday July 6 saved the American currency from further falling. And although the ISM index in the services sector fell to 60.1 in June (from a record 64 in May), this did not frighten investors, as a result above 50 is seen as positive and is in favor of the dollar. This is exactly what happened: having reached the height of 1.1895, the EUR/USD pair reversed and went down, reaching the local level at 1.1780 on Wednesday, July 07.
    The minutes of the June meeting of the FRS, published at the end of the same day, showed that although curtailing financial and credit stimulation (QE) programs was discussed at it, it did not come to specific decisions. The regulator will still not rush to tighten monetary policy, relying only on inflation indicators, and will wait for the full recovery of the labor market. And on that end, as mentioned above, the indicators are not particularly optimistic at the moment, indicating a slowdown in the American economy.
    The next day, Thursday, July 8, was the day when the euro was able to win back losses, not only because of the dovish position of the Fed, but also thanks to the publication of a new inflation target by the European Central Bank. Previously, the goal was to keep inflation “below but near 2%.” Now, the official target level allows for exceeding or lagging the indicator at certain points in time. At the same time, the head of the ECB Christine Lagarde stressed that her bank will not copy the new strategy of the Fed and will not specifically stimulate the growth of consumer prices in order to reach the average.
    The growth of the European currency and a decrease in global risk appetite caused by the spread of the delta strains of coronavirus helped. Carry traders began to close positions open on high-interest currencies in developing countries and return to fund currencies such as EUR and JPY.
    As a result of all the fluctuations and changes in trends, the five-day total can be considered close to zero, the EUR/USD pair ended the weekly session almost the same as it started ­at 1.1877;
  • GBP/USD. The dynamics of the British pound against the dollar last week followed the movements of its European counterpart. The prediction given by the graphical analysis proved to be the most accurate, it indicated first the GBP/USD growth to 1.3870-1.3900 and then its lateral movement in 1.3730-1.3870 channel. In reality, adjusted for a few points, that's what happened. As for the last chord of the week, it sounded near the upper boundary of the channel, at 1.3890;
  • USD/JPY. The competition over which currency is the best refuge from financial storms continues. And the yen won it with a clear advantage last week, having outperformed the dollar by 100 points. As predicted by the vast majority of experts (75%), the pair moved purposefully south for the entire first half of the week, recording a local low on the horizon of 109.50 on July 07. At one point, thanks to flight from stock market of investors and falling US government bond yields, its superiority was as much as 150 points.
    Then, against the backdrop of the recovery in the yield of US Treasuries to 1.3433%, the dollar was able to win back some losses, and the pair finished at 110.10;

As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the views of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

  • EUR/USD. It seems that the epidemiological situation associated with the spread of new strains of COVID-19 is coming to the fore again. Risk cravings are falling and investors, fearing a repeat of last year's situation, are once again beginning to gravitate towards protective assets. Stock indices - Nasdaq, Dow Jones, S & P500 - stopped growing, going into a sideways trend. And impressive black candles appeared on their daily charts. In parallel, demand for U.S. Treasury liabilities rose: the yield on Treasuries fell to a new multi-month low, to 1.25%.
    Despite the worsening epidemiological situation, the European Commission has raised its forecast for GDP growth in the Eurozone from 4.3% to 4.8% in 2021. The growth of economic activity should be influenced by the softening of quarantine measures (if it continues, of course) and the mass vaccination of the population. GDP is expected to return to pre-crisis levels as early as Q4 of this year, a quarter earlier than forecast, and this could prompt the ECB to start winding down QE programmes more quickly.
    But if European inflation and GDP are growing by 2% and 4.8%, then the growth of similar American indicators is 5% and 7%, respectively. And who will start tightening monetary policy earlier, we wonder? Yes, the Fed has taken a wait-and-see, almost dovish position. But there are not so many hawks among the ECB's leadership, and its current position is more like a compromise between supporters of monetary expansion and their opponents.
    Experts’ opinion on the EUR/USD pair's immediate future can also be considered a compromise, with 40% in favour of growth, 45% in favour of falling, and 15% for continuing the side trend. At the same time, the number of supporters of a weaker dollar and a stronger euro rises to 60% when you move to the forecast by the end of summer.
    Among the trend indicators and oscillators on H4, 70% are colored green, 30% - red. On D1, the situation is different: 70% of trend indicators look down, and the oscillator readings are a mixture of red, green and neutral gray. Graphical analysis on H4 indicates a sideways trend within the 1.1780-1.1900 channel.
    The nearest target of the bulls is 1.1900, then 1.1975, 1.2000, 1.2050 and 1.2150. The challenge for July is to update the May 25 high of 1.2265. The bears' task is to test the March low of 1.1700. The supports on the way to this target are 1.1845, 1.1800 and 1.1780.
    The following events can be noted in the economic calendar for the coming week. German and US consumer market data will be released on Tuesday July 13. US Federal Reserve Chief Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak in Congress on Wednesday and Thursday, and another set of US consumer data, including retail sales and the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index, will close the working week on Friday July 16;
  • GBP/USD. The UK's GDP, trade and industrial production figures did not reach forecast values. And this will put some pressure on the pound. But despite this, 60% of analysts vote on the GBP/USD pair's move north.
    It finished the last week, rising to the 1.3900 zone. The mid-term chart clearly shows that this level is in the central part of the 1.3700-1.4000 channel. Therefore, the pair has many chances to continue the upward movement to its upper border.
    The remaining 40% of experts, in agreement with the graphical analysis on H4, believe that the British currency will not be able to break through the resistance of 1.3900 so far, including due to a new wave of COVID-19 spread in the country.
    The indicators' readings are almost completely consistent with their readings for EUR/USD. In terms of macroeconomic statistics, the June Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be known on Wednesday 14 July, which is projected to rise from 2.1% to 2.2 per cent. And the next day, a portion of data on the state of the UK labour market, including claims for unemployment benefits and the country's unemployment rate, awaits us. Recall that a rise in the same indicator in the US hit the dollar on the first Friday in July. For the United Kingdom, it is expected to remain flat at 4.7%;

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for July 12 - 16, 20211

  • USD/JPY. It is almost impossible to bring the indicator readings for this pair to any denominator, neither on H4, nor on D1. Will it continue its upward trend, which began in early January? Will it be able to gain a foothold above 111.00? A new impetus to this movement was given after the correction on April 26, and only now the first hint of a trend breakdown and a breakout of the lower border of this channel has appeared.
    We spoke above about the reasons for the strengthening of the yen last week. However, it is not possible to catch investor sentiment, as well as indicators, for the week ahead. The experts' voices are almost equally divided: 30% side with the bulls, 40% side with the bears, and 40% just shrug their shoulders.
    Graphical analysis on D1 first indicates a sideways movement of the USD/JPY pair in the 109.50-111.00 trading range, and only then does it rule out the continuation of the uptrend and its breakout to 112.00.
    The Bank of Japan's interest rate decision and the traditional subsequent press conference of its management may be of some interest the week ahead. Both of these events are scheduled for Friday July 16. And most likely, there will be no surprises for us, and Japan will once again reaffirm its title as an ultra-quiet haven for investors;


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