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October 17, 2020

Forex Forecast for October 19 - 23, 2020

First, a review of last week’s events:

EUR/USD. The market is now ruled by two main factors: the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic and the upcoming November 3 presidential election in the United States.

A rise of nearly 900,000 in applications for unemployment benefits showed that the labor market and the U.S. economy need more stimulus measures. And although, according to US Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin, an agreement on such measures between Democrats and Republicans before the election is unlikely, negative statistics have tempered greatly the market risk appetite and pushed down stock indices such as the S&P500. This clearly benefited the US currency: by Thursday, the dollar gained 135 points, and the EUR/USD pair reached a local bottom at 1.1685. This was followed by a rebound downward, and the pair completed the five-day period at 1.1715;

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October 10, 2020

Forex Forecast for October 12 - 16, 2020

First, a review of last week’s events:

EUR/USDWe have repeatedly written about the ECB's fear of strengthening the euro as it poses a threat to the recovery of the Eurozone economy. However, neither the head of the ECB Christine Lagarde nor her colleagues want to start a currency war with the US Federal Reserve. Therefore, try to turn the market around not by actions, but by words.

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October 3, 2020

Forex Forecast for October 05 - 09, 2020

First, a review of last week’s events:

EUR/USD. The question that we tried to resolve last week was whether this pair will continue its fall or return again to channel 1.1700-1.2010. Experts couldn't give any clear answer then. Their votes were divided as follows: 30% favored the fall of the pair, 30% favored its rise and 40% took a neutral position. As a result, the pair surely did not continue to fall, but it is also difficult to call its movement returning to the channel: having reached the local high at 1.1700 on Thursday, October 01, the pair turned around and completed the five-day period at 1.1715.

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September 26, 2020

Forex Forecast for September 28 - October 02, 2020

First, a review of last week’s events:

EUR/USDThe overwhelming majority of experts (75%), supported by the oscillators indicating that this pair is overbought, expected its correction to the south. The argument was that the pair ended the week near the strong resistance zone of 1.1900 on Friday, September 18. The above scenario came true 100%, and finally breaking through the mid-term support at 1.1700, the EUR/USD pair flew downward last week, finding the local bottom at 1.1610.

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September 19, 2020

Forex Forecast for September 21 - 25, 2020

First, a review of last week’s events:

EUR/USD. According to Reuters sources, the rate close to 1.2000 currently suits both sides, the US Federal Reserve and the ECB. Looking at the chart, one could clarify: not 1.2000, but 1.1850. After all, it is along this horizon the pair has been moving for seven weeks. But, in fact, the difference of 150 points has no fundamental significance here.

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September 12, 2020

Forex Forecast for September 14 - 18, 2020

First, a review of last week’s events:

EUR/USD. Following the ECB meeting on September 11, the Euro tried to fly up and even reached 1.1920, but literally an hour later the market decided that all this was not so important, and the quotes of the EUR/USD pair quickly returned to their original positions. As a result, as one third of the experts expected, the pair could not break out of the 1.1700-1.2010 channel, along which it has been moving for seven weeks. Moreover, its trading range narrowed to 1.1750-1.1920, returning to the values of the last decade of August.   

So, what actually happened?

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September 5, 2020

Forex Forecast for September 07 - 11, 2020

First, a review of last week’s events:

EUR/USDThe statement of the head of the US Federal Reserve Jerome Powell at the symposium in Jackson Hole is still the most discussed among investors and experts. The Fed decided to take the most serious step in monetary policy starting in 2012, announcing its plans to aim for an “average inflation rate of 2%.” This means that the regulator will not tighten its monetary policy even if the inflation rate exceeds these very two percent.

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August 29, 2020

Forex Forecast for August 31 - September 04, 2020

First, a review of last week’s events:

EUR/USD. 60% of analysts once again tried to give priority to the dollar last week, hoping that the EUR/USD pair will still break the support of 1.1700. In the opinion of the remaining 40%, it should have stayed within the side channel 1.1700-1.1910, which actually happened. Moreover, its finish took place near the upper border of this corridor.

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August 22, 2020

Forex Forecast for August 24- 28, 2020

First, a review of last week’s events:

EUR/USDWe noted in the previous forecast that only a clear breakdown of the channel 1.1700-1.1910 in one direction or another can give a clear idea of the dominant trend in conditions of subsiding activity. It is in this range that the pair has been moving for four weeks. But the breakdown never happened: after all it is August, holidays, and no extra events capable of stirring up markets, have not yet happened. The situation shows that investors are ready to buy back even very small drawdowns and close positions with very moderate profits. As a result, the breakthrough to 1.1965 did not bring success to the bulls, and the pair returned to the sidelines1.1700-1.1910, having finished the week not far from its central line, in the 1.1795 zone;

 
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August 15, 2020

Forex Forecast for August 17 - 21, 2020

First, a review of last week’s events:

EUR/USDCiting data from the Labor Department, optimists say that the U.S. economic recovery is gaining momentum. The pandemic-stricken labour market is beginning to recover and may have already overcome the worst stage of the crisis. Unemployment in July fell to 10.2% (against the April peak of 15%). 1.8 million people returned to work in July, a trend that continues for the third month in a row.

 
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August 8, 2020

Forex Forecast for August 10 - 14, 2020

First, a review of last week’s events:

EUR/USD. The dollar has been falling for six straight weeks. The USD index (DXY) fell to the minimum values since May 2018. In total, it has lost about 10% in the last five months. And now, it seems that the fall has stopped: the EUR/USD pair is moving along the side corridor within 1.1700-1.1910 for the second week in a row. Attempts to break through its upper border on August 05-06 ended in failure, and the pair completed the five-day period at 1.1785 on Friday August 07.

 
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August 1, 2020

Forex Forecast for August 03 - 07, 2020

First, a review of last week’s events:

EUR/USD. The U.S. economy is not just in recession. It's flying down at a breakneck speed. The decline in US GDP in the second quarter was the largest ever recorded - minus 32.9%. The reasons for this fall are well known - these are quarantine measures caused by the coronavirus pandemic. The authorities hope they can stop the spread of COVID-19 without turning the economy to zero. Some states have managed to tighten quarantines without restricting economic activity and to achieve a smoothing of the incidence curve.

 
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July 25, 2020

Forex Forecast for July 27 - 31, 2020

First, a review of last week’s events:

EUR/USDThe USA does not bring good news to the markets.  Escalating tensions between Beijing and Washington, rising jobless claims, and the ongoing COVID-19 offensive frighten investors, raising doubts about the imminent recovery of the American economy. The Nasdaq and S&P500 indexes turned red at the end of the week. However, their decline is not yet large enough to return investor interest to the dollar - the USD (DXY) index continues to fall and has already reached 94.4, which is even below the low of March 09, 2020.

 
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July 18, 2020

Forex Forecast for July 20 - 24, 2020

First, a review of last week’s events:

EUR/USD. Relations between Beijing and Washington continue to heat up, the onslaught on coronavirus goes with great difficulty. 1.3 million people applied for primary unemployment benefits last week in the United States. For more than 17.3 million it was not the first time that they received them, which is 10 times higher than the pre-crisis norm. But at the same time, the risk appetite of investors does not fade away, the stock markets continue to grow. The S&P500 index has been climbing since March 23 and is already approaching February highs. The Nasdaq 100 has broken all records, jumping over the 10,650 mark.

 
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July 11, 2020

Forex Forecast for July 13- 17, 2020

First, a review of last week’s events:

EUR/USDThe dollar is slowly weakening, the pair moved above Pivot Point 1.1240 last week, but is still within the five-week channel 1.1170-1.1350. As expected by 25% of experts, the bulls made an attempt to reach the level of 1.1400, but their attack  choked quickly, and, turning at the height of 1.1370, the pair went down again, ending the five-day period in the 1.1300 zone.

 
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July 5, 2020

Forex Forecast for July 06 - 10, 2020

First, a review of last week’s events:

EUR/USD The latest US employment data is not just optimistic, but over-optimistic: approximately 4.8 million people returned to work in June. The unemployment rate fell from 13.3% to 11.1% - the best increase in employment outside the agricultural sector since records began in 1939.

 
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June 27, 2020

Forex Forecast for June 29 - July 03, 2020

First, a review of last week’s events:

EUR/USDCOVID-19 continues its second attack on the United States. A new spike in incidence is observed in at least seven states. And in the three most populous states, the number of infected people continues to grow at a record pace, with a spike in deaths due in about two weeks. Authorities in Houston (Texas) announced that intensive care units in hospitals are nearly overcrowded. It is clear that this new outbreak is related to the lifting of the quarantine at the end of May. And no matter how much the White House and the governors would not like to return to strict quarantine again, it is possible that they still have to do this.

 
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June 20, 2020

Forex Forecast for June 22 - 26, 2020

First, a review of last week’s events:

EUR/USD. The Financial Times reported in a recent article that analysts began to have problems as Forex stopped responding to fundamental factors as before. Against the backdrop of uncertainty in global financial markets, investor risk moods dominate, which are determined by the actions of regulators on quantitative easing (QE) and support for stock markets, on the one hand, and fear of the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, on the other. And this fear is becoming stronger due to a new outbreak of coronavirus in China and an increase in the number of infected in several US states.

 
 
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June 13, 2020

Forex Forecast for June 15 - 19, 2020

First, a review of last week’s events:

EUR/USD. If someone thought that the United States won COVID-19, they were mistaken. The number of people infected with coronavirus is growing in 21 states, with new highs recorded in 14 of them. Anti-racist demonstrations in the country are likely to further aggravate the infection situation. Can this be called the second wave of the pandemic? And won't the third one follow it in the fall?

 
 
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June 6, 2020

Forex Forecast for June 08 - 12, 2020

First, a review of last week’s events:

EUR/USD. Beginning May 25, the euro paired with the dollar rose in price for nine consecutive afternoon sessions, which, according to Dow Jones estimates, was the longest period of continuous growth since April 2011.

The ECB's decisions allowed the European currency to soar to its highest level since March 20, reaching the height of 1.1385. Led by Christine Lagarde, the Central Bank has surpassed all market expectations by increasing the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program (PEPP) by €600 billion to €1.350 trillion. This program will last at least until June 2021, and the proceeds received from the acquired bonds will participate in the process of reinvestment until the end of 2022. The ECB also kept the benchmark interest rate on loans at zero and the deposit rate at minus 0.5%. Thus, the ECB proved to be the only major regulator to continue the policy of quantitative easing (QE) last week, as well as one of the few central banks to undertake similar moves in June.

 
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May 30, 2020

Forex Forecast for June 01 - 05, 2020

First, a review of last week’s events:

EUR/USD. The European currency has been growing all week, even despite the rather weak statistics on the Euro zone economy. The pair was helped to break through the upper limit of the 1.0750-1.1000  corridor and rise to the height of 1.1145 by the news on the recovery measures in the EU, including the EU's plans to conduct direct emission and seriously expand its budget. The Swiss Bank, which buys EUR in exchange for its national currency, also provided support to the euro.

 
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May 23, 2020

Forex Forecast for May 25 - 29, 2020

First, a review of last week’s events:

EUR/USD. Tensions between the U.S. and China continue, which can not but affect the markets. President Trump said he will respond “very strongly” to Beijing’s legislative initiatives. This applies, in particular, to the desire of the PRC to strengthen control over Hong Kong, which has previously served as the cause of unrest in this country. If China continues to take this path, Donald Trump said on Thursday May 21, he “will deal with this issue very decisively.” In parallel, the US administration continues to point to the Celestial Empire, as the source of the global coronavirus pandemic, and requires appropriate compensation from it.

 
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May 16, 2020

Forex Forecast for May 18 - 22, 2020

First, a review of last week’s events:

EUR/USD. There is this expression — “retrain on the fly.” That's exactly what President Trump did on May 14. Prior to that, he talked a lot and often about the advantages of a weak dollar, which would increase the competitiveness of American products in foreign markets and pushed the Fed towards a softer monetary policy.  And now, he suddenly announced in an interview with Fox TV: "Right now it's good to have a strong dollar. Having a strong dollar right now is great!” The head of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, also supported his President, saying that the regulator did not and does not consider the possibility of switching to negative interest rates.

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May 9, 2020

Forex Forecast for May 11 - 15, 2020

First, a review of last week’s events:

EUR/USDThe Constitutional Court of Germany dealt a blow to the ECB's efforts to save the European economy last week. It decided that the European regulator had exceeded its authority regarding the quantitative easing (QE) program, and therefore its decisions were not binding on Germany. This news immediately weakened the EUR/USD position. If you add to this the lack of compromise among EU governments over fiscal stimulus, the risks of Eurozone fragmentation are growing every day.

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May 2, 2020

Forex Forecast for May 04 - 08, 2020

First, a review of last week’s events:

EUR/USDThe Constitutional Court of Germany dealt a blow to the ECB's efforts to save the European economy last week. It decided that the European regulator had exceeded its authority regarding the quantitative easing (QE) program, and therefore its decisions were not binding on Germany. This news immediately weakened the EUR/USD position. If you add to this the lack of compromise among EU governments over fiscal stimulus, the risks of Eurozone fragmentation are growing every day

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April 25, 2020

Forex Forecast for April 27- May 01, 2020

First, a review of last week’s events:

EUR/USDWhile in the United States, decisions to allocate money to revive the economy are made quickly enough, in the Euro Zone this is a process that requires a long discussion and agreement between the participating countries. And this can not but put pressure on the euro. So, at its meeting on April 23, the European Council seems to have reached an agreement on measures to help the economy, suggesting that the European Commission create a Recovery Fund in the amount of approx. €1 trillion, but they could not clearly agree as to where to get this money from.

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April 18, 2020

Forex Forecast for April 20 - 24, 2020

First, a review of last week’s events:

EUR/USDThe number of applications for unemployment benefits in the United States has amounted to 22 million over the past four weeks. For comparison, this figure remained at the level of about 930 thousand in the previous few years. In other words, the unemployment has increased 23 times! The number of employed in the US was just over 150 million, so the losses caused by the COVID-19 crisis approached 15% of all jobs.

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April 11, 2020

Forex Forecast for April 13 - 17, 2020

First, a review of last week’s events:

EUR/USDThe Old and the New Worlds continue to compete to see who will pour more money into their economies. But what is the old Europe compared to the United States! On Thursday, April 10, after many days of discussion, the EU Finance Ministers narrowly reached a compromise, concluding a deal on measures to support their countries in the amount of "some" €500 billion. At the same time, the US Federal Reserve announced the launch of another $2.3 trillion support program. At the same time, the Head of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, said that his Department will most likely not stop there and will do everything in order to restore the US economy as quickly as possible after the epidemic.

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April 4, 2020

Forex Forecast for April 06 - 10, 2020

First, a review of last week’s events:

EUR/USD. The German unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5% in March. But the data on the US labor market looks just terrifying: 6.648 million applications for unemployment benefits, this figure has increased by 10 million in two weeks, which is equivalent to 6% of the entire labor force. The number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector went down: -705K in March instead of +275K in February. Other indicators are no better. It is possible that the unemployment will jump higher than during the great depression. And at the same time, the dollar has been growing all week, taking away more than 350 points from the euro, which indicates that the market was already ready for such a collapse of the US economy and took this into account in its quotes in advance. The dollar was also helped by statements from President Trump and the Saudi Energy Ministry about a possible return to the negotiations in the OPEC+ format and an end to the oil war. Although, there is as little clarity on this front as on the front of the fight against the COVID-19 coronavirus.

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March 28, 2020

Forex Forecast for March 30 - April 03, 2020

First, a review of last week’s events:

EUR/USD. The pair's flights in recent weeks can be compared to aerobatics: first, an almost vertical takeoff up by 630 points, then a vertical peak by 860, and now a new leap up by 445 points.

Several factors caused the sharp drop in the dollar. The main one is the actions of the US Federal Reserve, which lowered the interest rate to 0.25% and launched a number of programs to support the US economy, injecting billions of dollars and distributing money to its citizens. As a result, the Fed's balance sheet exceeded a record 4.5 trillion dollars, and according to economists' calculations, it may even reach 6 trillion dollars. As a result, US stock indexes flew up, the S&P500 jumped by as much as 20%, pulling the EUR/USD pair with it: investors reacted positively to the steps taken by the US leadership and began to turn away from the dollar as a safe haven asset, preferring more attractive assets at the moment.

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