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November 13, 2021

Forex Forecast for November 15- 19, 2021

EUR/USD: Rising Inflation Equals to Rising USD

All US macroeconomic statistics turned out to be worse than forecast. But despite this, the American currency continues to grow. The DXY dollar index, which measures it against a basket of six other major currencies, hit 95.26 on Friday, November 12, gaining about 2% over the past two weeks. It would seem that everything should be the other way around. So, what is the reason for this strange situation? It turned out to be the rapid growth of inflation.


November 6, 2021

Forex Forecast for November 08 - 12, 2021

EUR/USD: Focus on the US Labor Market

The central events last week were the meetings of two regulators, the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England. Traders were also certainly interested in data from the US labor market, including such an important indicator as the NFP, the number of jobs created outside the US agricultural sector.


October 30, 2021

Forex Forecast for November 01 - 05, 2021

EUR/USD: After ECB Meeting, Ahead of Fed Meeting

Last time the EUR/USD review was titled “In a state of uncertainty”, as confirmed by the previous week. Starting at 1.1643, the pair dipped to 1.1581, then rose to 1.1691, and ended the session with a new drop, this time to the 1.1560 level.


October 23, 2021

Forex Forecast for October 25 - 29, 2021

EUR/USD: In a State of Uncertainty

When giving their forecast a week ago, 20% of analysts were in favour of a decline in EUR/USD, 50% voted for it to rise, and 30% were neutral. As a result, 80% of those who pointed north and east were right. After starting at 1.1600, the pair first rose to 1.1668, then fell to 1.1616, and then moved sideways in this channel. After Friday's speech by the Fed Governor, the pair dropped to the bottom of this trading range but finished almost in its middle at 1.1643.


October 17, 2021

Forex Forecast for October 18 - 22, 2021

EUR/USD: Correction or Trend Change?

Having reached a local low of 1.1523 on Tuesday October 12, EUR/USD ended a five-week downward marathon, turned, and moved up. Since autumn started, the dollar has won back 385 points from the euro. And is the pan-European currency going to regain losses now?


October 10, 2021

Forex Forecast for 2022

EUR/USD: First Down, Then Up

The global economy is recovering from the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, and this process will continue in 2022. At least. The forecast for global GDP growth of 6% is maintained this year. Growth will continue (unless there are new “surprises”) to roughly 5% next year, according to preliminary forecasts. However, this is an average indicator, and it is the difference in the rates of recovery of the economies of different countries that will affect the rates of their national currencies.


October 2, 2021

Forex Forecast for October 04 - 08, 2021

EUR/USD: Bears' New Win

EUR/USD fell to 1.1562 last week, breaking through the key support level of 1.1630, which separated the bullish trend that began in March 2020 from the bearish trend.


September 25, 2021

Forex Forecast for September 27 - October 01, 2021

EUR/USD: Close Start of QE End

The Fed did not make any changes to its monetary policy at its meeting on September 21-22. However, the regulator made it clear in its commentary that it was possibly ready to start a gentle tapering of the monetary stimulus (QE) program as early as November.


September 18, 2021

Forex Forecast for September 20 - 24, 2021

EUR/USD: Awaiting US Fed Decision

The dollar continues to strengthen, and the EUR/USD pair moves south. Starting on Monday September 13 at 1.1810, it ends the five-day run at 1.1730. The movement is certainly not very strong, only 80 points. But it must be taken into account that it was 1.1908 two weeks ago, on September 03.


September 11, 2021

Forex Forecast for September 13 - 17, 2021

EUR/USD: Eurozone QE Recalibration

The ECB meeting on Thursday 09 September went off as expected with no surprises. The interest rate remained unchanged at 0%. The European regulator has proposed a “dovish” reduction in the monetary stimulus program (QE). More precisely, according to Christine Lagarde, the bank's governor, it is not even about “tapering” but “recalibrating” the program. And the decline in asset purchases in Q4 is just a reversal of the decision made in March to increase them. In doing so, the ECB remains flexible, and may change the pace of purchases early next year if necessary.


September 4, 2021

Forex Forecast for September 06 - 10, 2021

EUR/USD: Falling Dollar and Rising Risk Appetite

The majority is not always right. Thus, only 30% of the experts voted for EUR/USD to grow to 1.1900 last week. But they were the ones who proved right. After the release of data from the US labour market on Friday 03 September, the pair soared to a height of 1.1908, and finished five days at 1.1880. The weakening of the US currency continues after Fed chief Jerome Powell's dovish statements in Jackson Hole and amid uncertainty with the timing of the beginning to wind down the fiscal stimulation program (QE).


August 29, 2021

Forex Forecast for August 30 - September 03, 2021

EUR/USD: Three Hawks and a Dove in Jackson Hole

The return of the EUR/USD pair to 1.1700-1.1900 was predicted by 35% of experts supported by 25% of oscillators that showed it was oversold. After renewing the annual low of 1.1665 on August 20, the pair did go into a correction, reaching 1.1775 on Thursday.


August 21, 2021

Forex Forecast for August 23 - 27, 2021

EUR/USD: Fed Needs Strong Dollar, ECB Needs Weak Euro

A previous review named the publication of the US Fed's FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday 18 August as the most important event of the past week.  This document was supposed to clarify the situation regarding the timing of the curtailment of the monetary stimulus (QE) program. Of course, 100% clarity never came out. Some Fed executives still believe that it is necessary to start winding down stimulus at the earliest in spring 2022. However, there is also the opposite view that a parting with QE should happen before the end of this year. And it was this view that led to another decline in investor risk appetites and a further strengthening of the dollar.


August 15, 2021

Forex Forecast for August 16 - 20, 2021

EUR / USD: Focus on Inflation

The forecast given last week has come true 100%. Recall that 70% of experts suggested that EUR/USD will test the late March low at 1.1700 once again. And it did drop to the level of 1.1705 as early as Wednesday. However, the drivers for further strengthening the US currency were not enough, and the pair was moving in reverse, north, for the second half of the week.


August 7, 2021

Forex Forecast for August 09 - 13, 2021

EUR / USD: it's All About the Labor Market

The EUR/USD pair drew another wave of sine waves on the chart: it fell by the same amount in the first week of August as it rose in the last week of July.


July 18, 2021

Forex Forecast for July 19 - 23, 2021

First, a review of last week’s events:

EUR/USD. Macroeconomic data continued to arrive last week, indicating a recovery in the US economy and labor market. Inflation figures released on Tuesday July 13 were well above forecasts. Τhe consumer price index increased by 0.9% ιn June, and by 5.4% and on an annualized basis, which is the highest growth rate since 2008. The core index, which excludes energy and food prices, has posted record growth since 1991, at 4.5% year on year.


July 10, 2021

Forex Forecast for July 12 - 16, 2021

First, a review of last week’s events:

EUR/USD. As predicted by the majority (65%) of experts, the dollar continued to weaken at the beginning of the week, and the EUR/USD pair went up. Disappointing data from the US labour market, released on July 02, affected the dollar. According to forecasts, the unemployment rate was supposed to fall from 5.8% to 5.7%, however, contrary to expectations, it rose to 5.9%.


July 3, 2021

Forex Forecast for July 05 - 09, 2021

First, a review of last week’s events:

EUR/USD. Making a forecast for the previous week, the majority of analysts (60%), supported by 85% of oscillators and trend indicators, voted for the strengthening of the dollar and the decline of the EUR/USD pair to the June 18 low of 1.1845. The forecast turned out to be absolutely correct, and the pair reached the set goal as early as Wednesday, June 30. But the dollar did not stop there and its DXY index renewed a three-month high on Friday, July 02, peaking at 92.699.


June 27, 2021

Forex Forecast for June 28 - July 02, 2021

First, a review of last week’s events:

EUR/USDThe data on the labor market and the US economy released last week did not have much positive to please. Q1 GDP growth (6.4%) coincided with forecast data, which is no better but also no worse than market expectations. And then there were some disappointments. Initial jobless claims were 411K with a forecast of 380K. The increase in durable goods orders for May was lower than expected at 2.3% instead of 2.7%. And capital goods orders fell into the negative zone, minus 0.1%. And all this is against the back of Markit's business growth in Germany (60.4 in June versus 56.2 in May) and in the Eurozone as a whole (59.2 vs. 57.1).


June 19, 2021

Forex Forecast for June 21 - 25, 2021

First, a review of last week’s events:

EUR/USDThe US Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday June 16 was the key event of the week. No particularly significant decisions were made there: the interest rate remained unchanged at 0.25%. The Federal Reserve will also continue to print money and buy back assets in the previous volume of $120 billion. But, as expected, following the meeting, the regulator's roadmap was unveiled, as a result of which the dollar bulls got what they had been waiting for.


June 12, 2021

Forex Forecast for June 14 - 18, 2021

First, a review of last week’s events:

EUR/USD. The key day last week was Thursday, June 10. There were two important events on the day: the European Central Bank meeting and the release of US consumer market data. Now let's talk about everything in order.


June 5, 2021

Forex Forecast for June 07 - 11, 2021

First, a review of last week’s events:

EUR/USDWhen giving their forecast for the previous week, 50% of analysts expected the dollar to strengthen and the EUR/USD pair to fall to the 1.2000 area, 30% voted for the continuation of the sideways trend in the channel, 1.2125-1.2265, and another 20% supported the breakdown of the upper boundary of this channel.


May 29, 2021

Forex Forecast for May 31 - June 04, 2021

First, a review of last week’s events:

EUR/USDIf you look at the chart of this pair on D1, it is safe to talk about the uptrend in the last eight weeks. But if you switch to lower timeframes, H4 or H1, it becomes clear that it has been in the "sideways" for the last two weeks, being squeezed in the range1.2125-1.2265. The last chord of the five-day period sounded in the area of the Pivot Point of this channel as well, at the level of 1.2194, without giving any guidance for the future.


May 22, 2021

Forex Forecast for May 24 - 28, 2021

First, a review of last week’s events:

EUR/USD"Some Committee members would consider it appropriate to start discussing the topic of curtailing monetary stimulus if the US economy is moving quickly towards the targets set by the Fed," the minutes of the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which was published on Wednesday, May 19, say. The wording is more than vague. But it was against this background that the bears tried to strengthen the dollar and drop the EUR/USD pair down. As a result, having bounced off the high of the last eight weeks at 1.2245, it dropped by 85 points - to support1.2160.


May 16, 2021

Forex Forecast for May 17 - 21, 2021

First, a review of last week’s events:

EUR/USDAs predicted by most experts (60%), the first half of the week benefited the dollar, strengthening it and dropping the EUR/USD pair to support 1.2050. The US inflation report, released on Wednesday May 12, pointed to an impressive rise in April and hit the stock market hard. The consumer price index climbed 0.8%, the strongest monthly gain since 2009. In annual terms, inflation rose by 4.2% versus 2.6% between March 2020 and March 2021 and showed the strongest acceleration since 2008.


May 9, 2021

Forex Forecast for May 10 - 14, 2021

First, a review of last week’s events:

EUR/USDThere has been a lot of talk for a long time about how quickly and how well the US economy is recovering. But the head of the Fed, Jerome Powell, warned a week ago that everything is still quite fragile, and the acceleration of inflation is a temporary factor. Apparently, he already knew it then, and now everyone else knows it too: not everything is as rosy as it seemed.


May 1, 2021

Forex Forecast for May 03 - 07, 2021

First, a review of last week’s events:

EUR/USDThe last week of April was marked by three events­: the Fed meeting, as well as the publication of data on the US and Eurozone GDP.


April 24, 2021

Forex Forecast for April 26 - 30, 2021

First, a review of last week’s events:

EUR/USD. The US economy is showing impressive growth. Europe, on the other hand, is in a widespread lockdown and, apparently, is experiencing a second recession. The share of those who received at least one COVID-19 vaccine in the EU is 25.1%, while in the United States there are 2.5 times more of them, 63.2%. Can the euro grow in such a situation? Only 25% of experts answered positively to this question last week, and they turned out to be right: the pairEUR / USD reached the level of 1.2080 on Tuesday, April 20.


April 17, 2021

Forex Forecast for April 19 - 23, 2021

First, a review of last week’s events:

EUR/USDThe past week was marked by two important economic events: impressively strong macro-statistics from the USA and a collapse in the yield of 10-year US government bonds.


April 3, 2021

Forex Forecast for April 05 - 09, 2021

First, a review of last week’s events:

EUR/USDThe U.S. economy continues to recover vigorously. This is evidenced by the impressive data from the labor market. Thus, the number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector (NFP) has almost doubled compared to the previous period (growth from 468K to 916K) and, moreover, has exceeded the forecast (647K) by almost a third. The ISM Manufacturing PMI has risen from 60.8 to 64.7. Also, according to the ADP report, the employment rate in the private sector has increased from 176K to 517K. All this suggests that fiscal stimulation of the economy and the injection of money into it is working. But is it good for the dollar?


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